Northern Eurasia 2021: Northern Eurasia Today

The Russian foreign electoral interventions of 2015 and after have so far done little to end tensions between Russia and the West. Despite Donald Trump’s pro-Russian words, the US sanctions on Russia—which followed the Crimean Crisis and the first allegations of Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential elections—have not been eased and US-Russian rivalry in Syria and Ukraine continues to this day.

Main Events

25 Nov 2018 Kerch Strait incident

In November 2018 the Russian Coast Guard fired upon and captured three Ukrainian Navy vessels in the Kerch Strait—lying between Russia and the Russian-annexed Crimean Peninsula—as they attempted to pass from the Black Sea into the Sea of Azov en route to the Ukrainian port of Mariupol. Russia claimed that the ships had entered Russian territorial waters; Ukraine responded by declaring one month of regional martial law under the stated concern of a Russian invasion. Russian actions were criticized by Europe and the United wikipedia

19 Dec 2018 Trump’s withdrawal from Syria

In December 2018, without any apparent consultation with Congress and against the recommendations of his advisors, United States President Donald Trump announced on Twitter that the war with ISIS (Daesh) had been won and the remaining 2,000 US troops in Syria would be withdrawn, although he gave no clear timetable. The following day US Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis tendered his resignation, expressing concern that the fight with ISIS was not yet complete and that the move handed control of the region to Russia and Iran and was an abandonment of the US’s Kurdish allies. Trump’s words were also met with concern by US allies, although they were greeted as a positive move by Russian President Vladimir Putin. The withdrawal took place over 2019, but was partially reversed in late October to leave 500–900 US troops in eastern wikipedia

5 May 2019–pres. Iran–US confrontation

In May 2018 United States president Donald Trump withdrew the US from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal with Iran, reinstating sanctions against Iran and raising tensions between the two countries. From May 2019 the US, Iran, and their allies mounted limited attacks and counterattacks against each other’s assets in the Persian Gulf, leading up to 31 December Iranian-backed attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, and a 3 January 2020 airstrike in which US drone-launched missiles targeted and killed Iranian general Qasem Soleimani and 9 others near Baghdad Airport. In retaliation, Iran launched missile strikes at an unoccupied US airbase in wikipedia

9–17 Oct 2019 Operation Peace Spring

On 6 October 2019 United States president Donald Trump ordered the withdrawal of US troops from Rojava in northeastern Syria, where the US had been supporting its Kurdish allies. Three days later, in what they code-named Operation Peace Spring, Turkey troops crossed into Rojava, expelling Kurdish forces from a 30 km-deep “safe zone” in the border region. The Kurds responded by reaching an agreement with the Syrian government, allowing the Syrian Army to enter Rojava in an attempt to defend the region against further Turkish wikipedia

31 Jan 2020–pres. COVID-19 in Northern Eurasia

COVID-19 moved swiftly from China to Russia, first being reported in Tyumen (Siberia) and Chita (Russian Far East) at the end of January 2020. Despite lockdowns and other attempts at containment, by mid January 2021 Russia had reported 65,000 deaths; Ukraine over 20,000; Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia almost 3,000 each; Kazkhstan 2,300; Belarus almost 1,600; Kyrgyzstan 1,380; Uzbekistan 600; and Tajikistan 90. Abandoning World Health Organization guidelines, Russia was the first nation to produce a COVID-19 vaccine, which it proceeded to roll out from early September 2020 in the face of international wikipedia

27 Sep–10 Nov 2020 Second Nagorno-Karabakh War

In late September 2020 clashes broke out along the Nagorno-Karabakh Line of Contact, which had been established after Armenia’s occupation of southwest Azerbaijan in support of the breakaway state of Artsakh in 1994. Supported by Turkey, the Azerbaijanis made substantial gains, particularly in the south where they captured Shusha, the second-largest city in Nagorno-Karabakh, on 8 November. Two days later, a Russian-brokered ceasefire was agreed, whereby Nagorno-Karbakh was divided along the ceasefire line and Armenia withdrew from all Azerbaijani territory it had occupied outside wikipedia